Wintry blast closing in on AFL grand final

Don't be fooled by Melbourne's summer-like warmth, it won't last long. A wintry blast is due to arrive in time for the AFL grand final, weatherzone.com.au says.

After getting to as warm as 27 degrees this afternoon it will feel as much as 15 degrees colder only 48 hours later, during the grand final.

"The 2012 grand final is shaping up to be similar to 2009, when Geelong beat St Kilda," Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said.

"For much of the game the temperature will be about 12 degrees and the breeze strong enough to make it feel less than 10 degrees at times.

"Brief showers are likely and hail is possible, which would cool it another couple of degrees. Having said that, it is unlikely to be the coldest grand final in the past decade.

"The biggest single weather influence on the game will be the wind. Westerlies blowing at 30 to 40km/h will penetrate even the tightest-knit jumpers and scarves and also blow some kicks off target.

"It's about a one-goal breeze to the eastern end of the MCG, but that advantage will lessen later in the game as wind gradually eases. This could make winning the toss important," he said.

This forecast may not sound so good for footy but the experts say it won't be too bad. The heaviest and most frequent showers are expected to be south and east of the MCG.

"It's possible the MCG will escape the showers altogether. Showers are a 70 per cent chance at about midday for the car park barbie, a 60 per cent chance in the first quarter, dropping to a 40 per cent chance by the last quarter. Any showers will be so brief that 80 to 90 per cent of the game will be dry. I can't imagine it being muddy or very slippery at all," Mr Dutschke said

"Sunshine should get a mention, too, because there will be enough of it to cause sunburn, especially if you're in the Southern Stand. Even in 12 degrees you can get a sunburn at this time of year."

There's not much chance of sunburn at tomorrow's parade of Hawthorn and Sydney players and coaches.

"It'll be cloudy for much of the day with some rain, about a 70 per cent chance of rain in the city at lunchtime. A bit blustery but not too cold, 17 or 18 degrees when Hawthorn and Sydney Swans get chauffeured up Collins Street to the Treasury Building," Mr Dutschke said.

Rain tomorrow and leading up to the game will amount to 10 to 15 millimetres. Any showers during the game would amount to less the two millimetres.

Cold grand finals in the past decade:

2011 - Geelong v Collingwood, 14 degree maximum

2009 - Geelong v St Kilda, 14.2 degrees

2003 - Brisbane v Collingwood, 13.7 degrees

2002 - Brisbane v Collingwood, 11.9 degrees

smh.com.au

Sydney weather statistics can be seen here.

Weatherzone.com.au is owned by Fairfax Media, publisher of this website. 

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